Analysts have made it clear that the Nigerian government need to urgently rethink its counterterrorism approach to address the fight against Boko Haram.
Boko Haram militants have stepped up their attacks across Nigeria, with over 500 people dead in the first quarter of 2025 alone.
According to a recent study by the South Africa-based Good Governance Africa, the Islamist group has regained momentum after years of quietness.
Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission reports that at least 2,266 people were killed by bandits or insurgents during the first half of 2025, thus exceeding the total figure recorded in 2024.
“We’re seeing nighttime raids not only against civilians but also against the military,” Malik Samuel, a senior researcher with Good Governance Africa, stated.
“Attacks and abductions are now taking place on highways and farmlands is a clear sign of tactical planning, One such assault in Darul Jamal, northeastern Nigeria, left at least 60 people.” He further stated.
Security experts say the resurgence is linked to Niger’s March 2025 decision to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force which was a coalition set up to secure the Lake Chad area,
The Multinational Joint Task Force was Initially created by Nigeria in 1994, the MNJTF later included Niger, Cameroon, Chad and Benin.
Niger’s new military-led government, which came to power after a 2023 coup, cited the need to focus on protecting its oil and uranium assets, thus leaving the coalition.
Several Analysts believe this withdrawal has left the Nigeria–Niger border increasingly porous, giving insurgents easier access to weapons and ammunition.
“Logistics and planning have become easier for Boko Haram, Arms smuggling into their territory is now less constrained.” said Oluwole Ojewale of the Institute for Security Studies.
With Nigeria also grappling with other crises ranging from farmer-herder clashes to mass kidnappings and armed robbery, thus, military resources once concentrated in the northeast are stretched thin, leaving communities vulnerable.
Since Boko Haram launched its insurgency over 15 years ago, more than 40,000 people have been killed and at least 2 million displaced, according to UN data.
The Nigerian military says it has achieved significant progress against the group. Brigadier General Tukur Gasau explained that most terrorists have been “decimated” and no longer control territory as they once did.
He noted that schools, markets and highways in Borno State which were previously the main point of the insurgency have reopened.
Although residents in affected areas dispute the official narrative. “People are scared; you can feel the tension,” Taofeek, surname withheld explained.
“You can’t drive at night. If you’re sleeping, your eyes are open. The government needs to do more.”Mutaru Mumuni Muqthar, Executive Director of the West Africa Centre for Counter Extremism (WACCE), said.
He also agreed with the Brigadier General as he said, “We’ve seen some successes, but also significant comebacks that undermine the state. There’s no sign yet that Boko Haram’s insurgency will end soon.”
Ojewale stressed the need for improved cross-border security and stronger cooperation with regional blocs such as ECOWAS and the African Union.
He also warned that the government must curb extremist recruitment to prevent Boko Haram from replenishing its ranks, Without such measures, analysts caution, Nigeria risks facing an even more severe insurgency, one that could further destabilize the region.
